Monday, November 21, 2005

Serevent and Asthma Warnings

This is from

GSK: Lowering Advair/Serevent Sales, But Impact To EPS In '06/'07 Negligible:

On GlaxoSmithKline (GSK:$49.92; Underweight rated), just how the newly
announced potential Advair/Serevent labeling (recommending a change to second
line usage, from first line) will impact sales is difficult to forecast - any sales
decay will likely be gradual.

We are lowering our revenue forecasts modestly, but the impact to EPS in '06/'07
may be negligible given GSK's large revenue base. Following GSK's recent run-up
in share price, a pull-back may be warranted given these new concerns.

**Serevent (a long acting beta agonist, or LABA) is the product more clearly
"at risk" ... . Advair (combination of inhaled steroid and Serevent) should remain more resilient.

**SMART trial results first flagged potential safety issues in 2003 - why FDA
has just now requested a label change like this is unclear.